Are state Dems’ wins a turning point, or just a boost in number?

John Kennedy and Aaron Deslatte, Orlando Sentinel

March 2, 2008

Steve Schale, who directs state House campaigns for the Florida Democratic Party, is a longtime Chicago Cubs fan, so he's had his share of misery.

But Schale and his boss, House Democratic Leader Dan Gelber, are getting pumped about another nine.

That's the number of seats House Democrats have picked up during the past two years, marking what they say is the biggest legislative gain by either party in Florida in more than 30 years.

Democrat Tony Sasso's victory last week in a special election to fill a Republican-leaning House seat in Brevard County is being hailed as a pivotal turning point.

"If Democrats want to get back close to being a majority, these are the kind of seats we have to win," Schale said. "It's really testament to us having had a really good candidate."

Democrats gained seven seats in the 2006 elections and have since picked up two Republican-held seats in Central Florida. Rep. Darren Soto, D-Kissimmee, won a special election last year when Republican John Quinones left to take a seat on the Osceola County Commission.

Republicans control the House by 77-41. But Democrats are expected to retain a couple of seats in upcoming special elections to further narrow the gap to 77-43.

That's a long way from a majority. But Schale, ever the Cubs' fan, said, "Hope springs eternal."

Sasso, a former Cocoa Beach city commissioner, ran as a political centrist -- perhaps even conservative -- with a campaign anchored on cutting taxes and his "A" rating from the National Rifle Association. He was outspent almost 2 to 1 by his opponent, Merritt Island businessman Sean Campbell.

Democrats say Sasso was helped by voters turning away from the GOP, estimating that 20 percent of the district's registered Republicans voted for Sasso. That, they say, could signal a trend that will yield more victories this fall.

Of course, the fact that the seat was opened by the resignation of Republican Bob Allen, who stepped down following his misdemeanor conviction of soliciting an undercover police officer for sex, may have been a factor in the vote.

Gelber sees a larger anti-Republican movement that he says can be traced back to House Speaker Marco Rubio's budget-cutting, socially conservative policies in Tallahassee. It's a theme Democrats plan to echo on the campaign trail this fall.

"I think they've spent a lot of their time pushing a right-wing agenda with PowerPoints and Newt Gingrich instead of recruiting credible candidates that represent their districts," said Gelber of Miami Beach.

But House budget Chairman Ray Sansom, R-Destin, in line to succeed Rubio as speaker, dismisses such talk. Republicans have held onto a half-dozen seats in special elections in recent months, which he said defies claims by Democrats that they are making inroads statewide.

Sansom also said the GOP message continues to work -- maybe too well.

"Sasso ran as a conservative," Sansom said. "All it shows is that even a Democrat can get elected if he runs like a Republican."